After-shocks and managerial mistakes

There was a fascinating TV programme last night that set out how policing is being influenced and improved as a result of using predictive algorithms. The show set out how the Los Angeles PD in one particular area have been using the algorithm to effectively show up in the right place at the right time to anticipate criminal activity and to deal decisively with it or deter it altogether. The numbers are impressive, the reduction in the level of crime is hard to ignore. So much so that the use of ‘predictive policing’ is now being rolled out all over cities in America.

The use of predictive algorithms has come about because academics at UCLA spotted the potential to marry what they had learned from earthquake aftershocks with the massive database held by the LAPD.

The use of powerful algorithms to use past behaviour to attempt to predict future behaviour doesn’t just extend to criminal behaviour. Obviously marketers are hugely interested in being able to anticipate demand, planners would love to be able to anticipate where to build roads, drains and other infrastructure and so on.

The one that I was thinking about though was managers. It struck me that a lot of problems in business these days are not new problems. They often involve people making bad decisions in an eminently predictable way. “I knew when he spoke to them like that they would refuse to co-opererate”. “I knew the minute the email went out that people would get the wrong idea”. Many of the stupid things that happen in business can probably be predicted because they closely mirror mistakes made previously.

So if the algorithm is vitally important because it can help to find meaning in the data, what about the data? Well that’s surely the problem when it comes to learning from managerial mistakes. I’m not sure that managerial mistakes are actually captured in data form anywhere, in any company. Why is that?

If people are our most important asset (do I hear you yawn?) then surely we should be learning about the way we manage and treat our people to find out if we are being effective. We should have data, data which we can mine to find out how to predict the problems and avoid making them in the future.

Obvious, isn’t it?

Pop music and coffee shops

I came to a coffee shop this morning to grab some quiet time away from the office, some time to think about the day and the various things I am working on. I got here expecting to sip my americano while Ray La Montagne or Sade gently croons in the background. Instead I have had Kylie Minogue belting out her high energy high tempo vocals in my ear for the last 10 minutes. I have nothing against pop music by the way.

This all got me thinking about how important the climate really is when it comes to getting things done. In the same way that a poor choice of music can spoil the atmosphere in a coffee shop for me, the wrong ‘background music’ in the office can derail the best efforts of your people to do great work. So what is the ‘background music’ of work? In some cases it can literally be music, but in most cases it’s the tone that is set by the manager or group leader, the way they go about their own work and how they interact with others. If the tone of the workplace is frantic, disorganised, adversarial or in any way negative then that becomes the backing track for the group.

The ‘background music’ could also be the mood, whatever is in the air around the group. It could b a generally negative aspect towards work or one another, or worse towards customers.

While I can’t go behind the counter of the coffee shop and change the CD, the good news is that the manager or leader of the group has a huge influence over the ‘background music’ and can make changes when they need to.

One great place to start is to just spend a few minutes on some random day discretely observing the work for a few minutes, watching how people interact with one another, the pace and energy of the environment, and the things that people would not perhaps be proud about if they could see what you see.

The climate does have a big bearing on how people work and how they feel about their work and colleagues. It is relatively easy to adjust and little things can instantly boost the climate. If you don’t
believe me try showing up tomorrow morning with donuts for everyone?

And that’s the other point about climate. Just like the weather workplace climate is like a moving cloud above you. The things you do to create climate work but they don’t last for long, so you have to keep working at it to keep the climate regularised. Think of it as ‘climate control’. As the manager you are always responsible for climate control. It’s an active responsibility.

Kylie has been joined by Robbie Williams. It’s time for me to leave.